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Malawi Stock Exchange equities research

Information on some of Africa’s marginal stock markets is sometimes hard to find so it’s good to see that Imara have paid attention to the Malawi Stock Exchange equities market recently with this release of comprehensive research.

The inherent illiquidity in the Malawi market means long periods of inactivity and active price discovery from trading falls away. Equities become undervalued until someone notices and the market plays catch-up. Furthermore, the Malawi Stock Exchange website is not a World leader when it comes to the broad, comprehensive, non-exclusive dissemination of market information.

The MSE website has to be one of Africa’s worst, so it’s refreshing to be able to publish some good information for the market (not that they would be responsible for writing research – they are responsible however for making enough information available to enable investors to make informed investment decisions). Click on the link below to read Imara’s research online:-

READ IMARA’S RESEARCH HERE

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Well balanced insight into IR strategy
The article below is taken from www.iralert.com. I like it because it gives a good insight into the use of social media as well as provides some insights into the core basics of any IR programme. Interesting reading for an executive that is considering stepping up IR activities in their African company. Yes we do not have the same critical mass of investors as they do in Canada but its the basics that I am referring to and the approach to an IR programme.

Is Web Video an IR Silver Bullet? Streaming Video Could Be Stellar Conduit for Reaching Retail, Analysts and Others Says MOSAID IRO

Brian Pittman’s exclusive interview this week: Michael Salter, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, MOSAID Technologies

Still having trouble separating fact from fuss when it comes to social media and IR? Leery of falling victim to “Shiny Object Syndrome”? Seeking more model best practices for integrating social media into traditional IR programs?

Then consider the case of MOSAID, which has successfully incorporated Web video into the company’s recently launched IR Channel. Specifically, “Web video has become an indispensible tool here for reaching retail investors,” says MOSAID communications and IR director, Michael Salter. “I think we are going to see a dramatic increase in the use of video for IR in the coming years.”

It just makes sense, he explains: “People are consuming more and more information via video, and eventually it’s going to seem very natural to be able to view a video of the management of the company you are investing in. Using video is inherently democratic. At present, meeting top management is a privilege that’s largely reserved for institutional investors,” says Salter, who works with Web video platform and provider Investor Candy to deliver no-nonsense, high quality online IR focused video.

With video, “IR professionals can essentially extend that offer to everyone,” he continues. “And that’s a key reason we implemented a dedicated investor channel, because it creates a new kind of experience for investors.” Salter adds that the videos on the company’s IR channel can be viewed on an iPhone, Blackberry and other smart phone with Wi-Fi capability.

But the MOSAID Investor Channel is about far more than video, Salter stresses. “We see it as a powerful communication platform that is going to allow us to work with the sell-side to extend our message into new communities of investors.” In addition, the Investor Channel includes administration software that allows Salter to track video viewing, downloads, account set up and so on. “The response has been very good,” he says.

Read on for details behind MOSAID’s forward looking IR channel—and Salter’s tips, caveats and roadblocks other IROs can expect to encounter when incorporating social media:

You’ve had a great year, what with earnings up 40 percent. And yet you’re undervalued, according to a recent Business News Network interview I saw posted on your IR channel. How do you deal with that and better educate the market about what you do?

When we say we’re undervalued, we’re looking at it on a price earnings basis in comparison to some U.S. peers and those that do patent licensing. I’m thinking of companies like InterDigital, Tessera and Acacia (Technologies) and Rambus. What we’re looking at is that on an operations metric standpoint, we score highly, and on the valuation metrics side, we score lower. On a P/E basis, etc., we score less than our peers—even though we basically restructured the company back in 2007.

Can you give a quick background on the restructuring and the proxy contest that drove it—and then tie that into your value story to investors?

MOSAID was founded in 1975 and was doing semiconductor design focusing on memory chips. We had a memory chip tester business. Around 1999, we our signed first patent license agreement. And then in the fall of 2006, we had a proxy contest that resulted in a hedge fund called Loeb Partners getting three seats on the board. Then in the following year, we decided to focus on patent licensing only. We sold the chip design and memory test business—and started to bulk up on patents.

So really, you look at our fiscal ’07 revenues and they ticked down as we restructured. In ’09, they grew by 14% and the same in ’10. We’ve been profitable for five years in a row over six years at a 22% compounded annual growth rate. We report Canadian GAAP and use pro forma net income, and have a 35% compounded growth rate in earnings.

Another important thing is that we are one of the few Canadian small-cap technology companies to pay a dividend; it’s about a 4.5% yield and we’ve been paying that for five years. The next important piece to mention is that we continued to grow during the downturn. We delivered that dividend in the worst of downturn and continued to post revenue growth.

So, we have a fairly stable growth story—it’s not hockey stick, but it’s high profit and there’s a real degree of consistency in the patent business.

Getting back to the standpoint of being undervalued, then: We are delivering on results three years into the restructuring, but are still undervalued in our eyes, yes. As a result, we wanted to do something different to tell our stories to investors.

How are you doing that—where did you start?

Well, we started with all the usual things. We started marketing aggressively in ’08 and late ’09 because our results stood up. When you show that in a downturn, people are more interested in the story. There’s no question that when the stock hit a low of $7 Canadian in late ’08 and throughout ’09, we then had a good run peaking at $25 in early ’10. We’ve since given some of that back as of late. The main point here is we think from a valuation perspective, there’s a lot of room to grow.

So, one of the things that IR people normally do in a situation like that is they take the story out and get it in front of more people. We’ve done that by:

1. Increasing analyst coverage. At the lull, we had four and now we have five. I think another two will start to cover us, soon, as well. We took the route of doing more aggressive marketing to get more coverage.

2. Increasing road shows. Twice a year, we just go down and visit analysts for a day, in addition to visiting with investors. We dedicated two days a year to this—and we just got more rigorous in terms of asking covering brokers taking us out to include 25% new names on every trip. We were more insistent around that. We also increased the schedule of events—we basically asked for briefings of the sales desk at brokerages, including retail sales lunches. In 2006, by contrast, we did a road show and just visited buy side clients. But now, a typical day will include briefing the sales desk and a retail broker lunch.

3. Increasing outreach beyond Toronto. Canadian IR tends to be Toronto-centric, so we wanted to break out of that and our geographic trips increased as a result. We made sure we visit Vancouver, Calgary and Montréal on a more regular basis.

4. Increasing financial media relations. Another point tangential to IR is that we have a dedicated business channel in Canada called the Business News Network. In ’06-’07, we weren’t on that at all. I developed our relationship with BNN so we are now on four to six times a year. We can use those interviews as links on our website, which you saw, and then send those to our lists, and so on.

5. Increasing IR database contacts. We also re-focused on building our IR database of names more proactively using blast emails to update contacts on of all our financial information. Related to this is that we’ve increased our regular communication to our holders.

Good ideas all—what about non-traditional efforts. When did those start?

Beyond putting in place an IR strategic plan, getting more aggressive about marketing and our media outreach, we also started our MOSAID Investor Channel, which went online January, 2010. That’s the big new initiative.

What have the results and feedback been like?

They’ve been excellent. This is not necessarily about reaching a mass audience—it’s the about quality over quantity. So the feedback is more qualitative. That said, the reactions I’m getting are, for example, other IR professionals at a bank saying MOSAID is differentiating itself, a retail broker out in Vancouver saying it’s great because she can now send the videos to her client lists, and that those clients actually get to “meet management” via those videos.

Our chairman Carl Schlachte—a former CEO, and also past president of ARC International, which does configurable processor technology—got it right away. His reaction was, “I wish my guys had this for me. It would have saved me all kinds of time.” What he meant was: How do you do retail outreach?

Reaching retail shareholders has always been a huge issue for IR. That’s because it’s not cost-effective for management to do a lot of retail broker meetings, let alone meet small retail shareholders. So, with our investor channel, it’s not just about video—it’s a communications platform that gives the retail broker an ability to set up a private account that has nothing to do with us and then send video to his client list.

There is software in the Investor Candy platform that lets him see who viewed the video.

So why did you go this route—considering all the trends and tools in social media?

In the context of social media, we looked at Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, blogs and so on. Essentially, we centered on the use of video as being best suited for our company and IR. I think it hooks into social trends—it meets IR challenges and it’s fundamentally about creating a different kind of investor experience. It’s founded in the idea that a privileged few investors meet management. From a trends standpoint where securities regulators talk about access to management—video suits the bill.

What about triggering decisions to consider your stock—how does video help with that?
It’s not just a simple matter of video. Really, you have to get more people consuming your message. Clearly, video is one way of doing that. Once they’ve consumed your message, that becomes the precursor to considering your stock as an investment. That consideration is a precursor of demand.

Where does this initiative stand now, since you launched in January?

Stage two of this project for us is about working with the broker community and covering analysts to get them to use the Investor Channel as a way to begin engaging their clients. Now that we have it up and running, our goal is to actively educate people about the Investor Channel and engage with retail brokers to see if they’re interested in using it and get feedback as to how we can evolve that tool.

For example, BMO Capital Markets has been covering MOSAID for many years. They are a schedule one Montreal bank with a cross-Canada retail bank network. They have hundreds of retail brokers and have offices in the U.S. They’ve been doing equity research with us for years, and we’ve been a top pick of theirs many times. They’ve seen this channel and like it. We will be asking them how to introduce the channel to their retail brokers. They are reading research reports on us, and now they have video and other tools to help them with their sales kit.

People are using video all over the place online—so what’s the real innovation here? And what lessons for IROs come out of that?

Well, the video you’re referencing is typically advertising or marketing-communications driven. There are sales videos, videos from the trade floor and lots of corporate videos out there. But people haven’t created a dedicated investor channel with a commitment to content over the long term. That’s the innovation.

Our strategy will be to generate a video accompanying every press release MOSAID does. Frequency should be about 12-15 new videos per year. So you would have an earnings video every quarter. If you have a major customer win or contract announcement, there would be a video, as well. In our case, we are involved in litigations on patent licensings, so we’d also do a litigation update video, for example.

Beyond the regular flow of new videos, we also have “strategy videos” about our vision and strategy. These include the CFO talking about how and why we give guidance, for example.

Have you ever seen a video by a CFO on the practice of giving guidance? Probably not. So we have a library of videos talking about the strategy and operations of the company—and those are updated on average about once a year. Then, there’s the regular stream of new content. So, among the challenges is that it can’t be a one-off effort. Video must be a key component of a sustainable IR strategy.

What other challenges are there for IROs considering Web video?

In terms of IR people doing this—there is a learning curve involved. We worked on this a solid eight months before launching it. We had to be sure our key execs were comfortable with video, that the board signed on, and that we were willing to dedicate the time to it. I must emphasize that the time component is more critical than the costs. It’s a reasonable cost—we’re not talking here about $150,000 corporate videos featuring things like cakes and corporate HQ scenes and airplanes. We shoot this onsite against a white backdrop. It’s extremely low-cost compared to traditional corporate video.

It’s not advertising or marcom style video, either. It’s IR/corporate communications video—and that’s a very different style. More important, though, is the management of time and commitment.

So how did you determine the tone and look?

We did a lot of preliminary research determining the look and feel that would work for investors. We did a series of interviews with covering analysts and existing shareholders talking about how management communicates and how we’re perceived. We were aiming for authenticity. We came up with a catch phrase … that people knew us for our “quiet confidence.” We wanted a look and feel that reflected that.

One of the biggest reactions since we launched has been people saying, “These are not commercials.” That’s key—you can’t have anything in it that seems promotional. Also, these aren’t two-minute short videos. They run five to seven minutes. People may say that’s too long—but not for IR. Would you spend five minutes reading an annual report or 10K…yes. So, we’re not trying to be entertaining. It’s information.

What about disclosure issues—how do you address that?

We put the script and the finished video through the same disclosure process as we do for any other publicly released document. In the same way we review MDNA, financial statements, press releases, annual reports and so on—we use a disclosure committee here. We put the video script through the committee and then we review the final video with them. We look at everything from the script to titles to graphics, etc.

Video is a different medium and securities regulators are putting out guidelines for the use of electronic communications. So, we also have the entire channel reviewed by our securities lawyers. For instance, we tweaked the forward-looking statements that run in front of each video.

Any caveats or lessons for others based on your learning curve?

One thing we learned was this: Prior to launch, we were shooting videos and using promotional language such as, “We know you have made an investment in MOSAID or are considering one…” or, “We welcome you as a new shareholder in MOSAID.” Our securities lawyer said if we used promotional language like that, the entire video could be seen as a secondary offering. So we had to go back and scrub all that language. That took us a week of editing to remove that—so that’s a big tip here for readers. Do that review first.

We don’t say, “Here are the top ten reasons for buying MOSAID stock,” and we don’t talk about our thinking of why it’s undervalued. We just talk about our business strategy, our revenue growth strategy, our guidance—just the facts. So we had to learn what’s acceptable and not acceptable in video.

Another example is this: We announced a share offering in late January of 2010, then we closed in February. Our lawyers advised us to shut the channel down during the period that shares were on offer, until the shares had been distributed, because there was a concern that the channel might be viewed promoting the new offering, even though we had it vetted. So we did that to be on the safe side. We had a three-week period where we took it down. Lots of people noticed that and asked for it back.

So, you have to take the time to have it legally vetted and planned out. Take the time to figure out your review and disclosure process.

Can you elaborate on your choice of Investor Candy as your platform?

We are the first client for Investor Candy. We are also the first in Canada to start a dedicated investor based channel, so we’re breaking new ground with them. What I liked about Investor Candy is that Curtis Hollister, the founder, is an entrepreneur. He started and sold a few companies. He is not a traditional IR person or IR service provider. They class themselves as an innovation or ideas company. They are extremely bright and just bring a very different perspective. I didn’t feel I was working with a traditional investor relations supplier. They were bringing me something different.

This wasn’t intended to replace any of the traditional work we do. I wouldn’t stop doing any of the traditional IR efforts. This was about engaging with shareholders differently and creating a different investor experience—that’s what they brought to us.

IR communications tends to be conservative and should be. I don’t think IR should be leading the charge on communications practices. I report to a CFO. Company finances are supposed to be conservatively managed. Yet, there’s no doubt we’re a television culture now. YouTube is popular for a reason. This is about how to use video as a communications platform within investor relations, and how to do it in a planned, strategic way.

So, they’re an innovative company, and we love their platform. But beyond that, the innovation here, again, is the dedicated nature of the channel and the commitment to produce videos on a regular basis—not having this mistaken as marketing communications. This is video for investors. If you think about an investor meeting where you’re talking about growth rates, expenses, margins, total available markets, ratios of all kinds and so on—a lot of people will look at these videos and say they’re boring. That’s fine. Our model is to create an investor relations video genre—and then to work with the investment industry to learn how to extend the reach of these videos via their networks. That’s where we are now. That is the big job for the next six months or year. Internally, we made a two-year commitment to this to fund it. You can’t start it and let it run out of steam.

What other social media tools are you looking at?

These days, analysts and investors are using these tools, so you should be there, too. On that note, using Twitter may be fine for a company with a lot of PR activity—that’s right for them. But you have to figure out what social media tool is right for you and your particular needs. Previous to this, I worked for a company that did a press release a week. Here, I do half that. So de facto, there is less to “Tweet” about. It’s the same with blogging. There is frankly just less for MOSAID to blog about. We’re a patent licensing company, and we are prevented from discussing or disclosing those contracts or details.

So when we were doing our analysis of how to respond to social media—we realized we don’t have a lot to blog about. Another thing I’ve noted from IR people and others is they run out of stuff to talk about. There just isn’t that much they can talk about—so they end up talking about trends in the industry, etc. But every single video here is about our business. A core principle about corporate communications and IR is to approach everything by asking, “How does this help my business?” A CEO blog on some business trend isn’t really about his or her business. But these videos are about our business, our strategy, our operations and our investor story. Other tools didn’t fit us and our circumstances at MOSAID.

In IR, the question is, “How does this help you get people interested in your shares?” That’s it. Video answers that for us.

Is it easier to incorporate this stuff from an IR perspective when you hold a dual IR/PR role?

I would think so. At a company with 50 employees, I’m responsible for IR, corporate communications, media relations and the Web. I can see overlapping roles potentially creating issues at larger companies concerning who would have responsibility for implementing an investor channel.

What’s your advice to other IROs in terms of being strategic about integrating social media in general?

It starts with an analysis of your company’s communications challenges and which tool you think furthers your objectives. There is a feeling that if you say no, you’re not “with it.” So counter that by rigorously analyzing this, conducting a communications analysis of your own situation—frequency, what you can say and not say—and your industry sector’s business model.

For us, video fit our situation and strategic needs. We knew we were coming out of meetings with buy-side clients and they were saying that patent licensing is hard to understand—but when our execs speak, it’s credible, strong and clear. We were having success when people met management. So, this is an extension of that, because management had a lot of credibility coming away from face-to-face meetings. This became a great way to introduce management to shareholders and talk about a business model that few public companies are engaged in.

Video leverage is one of your best assets if management is a strength for you as an IRO. You can have tens of thousands of people meeting management this way, whereas in an average year, you as an IRO might be doing up to eight trips. There are only so many people who can meet management via traditional road shows. This takes it all to the next level.

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Zimbabwe economic insights:highly recommended reading

Imara Holdings, a pan African investment banking organisation with an asset management division managing funds across Africa, and with offices in Harare, provide some really insightful research into African markets. Especially for Zimbabwe. This is some of their best stuff.

Investment Notes – July/August 2010 – “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!”

    In recent weeks we have read reports from the IMF and heard the Mid-term review from Finance Minister Biti. In recent months we have also heard from companies operating on the ground in terms of their current sales and future intentions. We therefore find it hard to understand why both the IMF and Government are being as cautious as they are. That said we are pleased that they are not being overly optimistic as past Governments have tended to do. Nonetheless their views give a rather sobering view of the economy rather than an upbeat and exciting outlook for a country barely in its second year of reform that we would rather take.


    The IMF believes that the Zim economy is just over $5 billion. We are not sure as to where they got their figures from but we assume it is based on CSO data and their own estimates. They do however point out that “Data have serious shortcomings that significantly hamper surveillance due to capacity constraints”. In past Investment Notes we have been skeptical about such a number. Zimbabwe’s $5 billion economy compares with $14 billion for Zambia, a country with a similar sized population. In the past, and before the “lost decade”, Zimbabwe’s economy was always around 50% larger than Zambia’s as our agriculture, tourism and manufacturing sectors were always much larger whilst Zambia’s copper mining industry was still recovering from years of neglect. Indeed, had Zimbabwe continued on its growth path that it began from the mid 1990s, its economy today could well be a $25 to $30 billion economy. But it didn’t and it’s not!


    In this month’s Notes we will be looking at what is happening on the ground to assess whether the $5billion is reasonable or not. We start by looking at Zambia. Taking both major breweries in Zambia (owned also by SAB), in the year ending March 2010, they sold a combined $230 million worth of beverages (at higher prices than in Zim). This compares with Delta that sold $324 million in a year when they could not meet demand. That could imply that the Zambian breweries may not have such a tight control of their distribution thereby allowing in competition from imported product. Or it could mean that Zimbabweans simply drink more…or importantly can afford to drink more! At the same time, Zimbabweans are due to spend around $500 million using Econet’s mobile phone network in 2010. Zambians are spending only around $280m on their major network provider Zain (who no doubt charge less than Econet!). Innscor will soon be reporting their June 2010 numbers. We would not be surprised if  the amount of spend that Innscor is receiving domestically from fast foods, Colcom, National Foods and Spar will take the combined spend for just these three companies alone to well over $1.1 billion in 2010. Whilst the latter company is also selling imported product, it does give an indication of the current spending power in Zimbabwe just one year after dollarization. According to the IMF and Government Zimbabwe’s GNP per capita (ie economy per head) is US$450 which compares with Zambia at US$1,200 per head. The spending patterns in both countries alluded to above would suggest the opposite!

If we look at Zimbabwe’s major exports being generated by the mining, tobacco and cotton sectors in 2010, we also see an upbeat picture. Gold production is estimated by the Chamber of Mines to be around 7.5 tonnes in 2010 compared with 5 tonnes in 2009 and 3.5 tonnes in 2008. That’s a 50% increase over the year when gold prices have reached new highs. The value of those exports should be roughly US$250m. Zimplats this year will produce around 180 million ounces of platinum plus 160 million ounces of rhodium and palladium. The value of those combined is roughly $500million. Then Anglo’s Unki mine starts to sell its concentrate in the last quarter of 2010 adding to these numbers whilst Mimosa should add around $200million. In addition Zimbabwe is exporting chrome and coal and may even see ‘official’ sales of diamonds from Marange in the second half of 2010, adding to the diamond exports from Rio’s Murowa mine and River Ranch. Murowa is due to sell $30m in 2010. In the first half of 2010, the Mid-term review suggests, the value of shipments from platinum, ferrochrome and gold alone was $550 million. For 2010 as a whole a number nearer $1.2billion could be achievable for these minerals although we would expect more.


    In agriculture, the tobacco crop has been revised up on a number of occasions whilst the global price for our Virginia tobacco has been high due to global demand, especially Chinese. The export value of semi and processed tobacco could reach $500million in 2010, twice the amount of 2009. The cotton crop is up 18% whilst the cotton price is also higher than in 2009. The value of lint should be $200million in 2010, an increase of 60% on 2009. Thanks to the investment by Tongaat Hullet in Hippo Valley and Triangle over the past year, sugar output should jump by 24% in 2010 to 350,000 tonnes. Maize production in Zimbabwe has also increased in 2010 whilst the price has fallen sharply on World markets. The cost of importing maize should therefore be less than $100 million although the donors often fund a part of this and the cost to Zimbabwe could be lower still. Overall agricultural exports in 2010 could surpass $1 billion.

    So excluding manufacturing and tourism, exports from agriculture and mining might top $2.3 billion or higher in 2010. That’s a bigger number than the IMF forecast that includes manufacturing exports. We have not analysed Zimbabwe’s manufacturing exports for these Notes but believe that longer term, Zimbabwe’s export growth will come from mining and agriculture rather than manufacturing production. That said there will always be a place for Zimbabwean manufacturers who produce niche products that can compete regionally and globally. Sadly, long gone have the days when we can or should try to compete with large scale production from China and India in mass market products.


    In the construction sector, PPC Cement has capacity to produce 700,000 tonnes of cement, a level that can be increased with clinker imports from SA. Lafarge Zim produces 450,000 tonnes, plus 350,000 tonnes of clinker. Meanwhile Lafarge Zambia’s new plant produces 1.23 million tonnes a level that easily meets Zambian demand. Zimbabwe’s cement demand is set to rise strongly as demand for housing and infrastructure increases. Investment projects announced so far by the mining companies include those for Zimplats ($445m) and Rio Tinto for Murowa ($300m). AngloPlats are also investing heavily in Unki. Recent tenders published in the newspapers highlight the amount of works about to go into housing and infrastructure for such projects.


    Meanwhile the financial sector has seen deposits rise from $700 million a year ago to $1.9 billion today, a growth of 167%. Year to date the growth is 40%. As a result liquidity and lending is slowly picking up. Just as we are seeing globally post the credit crunch, credit and bank loans are hard to come by. The banks themselves will admit that the cash in circulation and held by individuals could be substantial relative to the deposits in the banking system such is the mistrust in the banking system on the one hand and the size of the informal economy on the other. In some African countries the informal economy can be the same size as the recorded formal economy. Looking at Zambia again, bank deposits at the end of March totaled $1.6 billion in kwacha deposits plus another $1 billion of forex deposits, little higher than Zimbabwe today!


    The Mid-term review also gave some upbeat data. Tax revenues in the first six months of the year were 12% above target with Vat receipts 9% above budget. PAYE was 22% above budget and 290% above that raised twelve months before. This also explains in part why consumption is strong year on year. Corporation tax is also 54% above target. Overall revenue earned was $931million whilst expenditure was $813million thereby following the Government’s cash targeting. Overall budgeted expenditure for 2010 is being held at around $2.25 billion which we believe might be nearly 50% above 2009. (the year of transition makes this comparison difficult). It would appear though that most of this revenue will be generated from local sources rather than by the “vote of credit” assumed in December’s budget.


    Our sources are primarily those on the ground ie the operating companies, rather than the Government or the individual Ministries. We share both the Finance Minister’s views and that of the IMF that the data is poor hence the revamp for the Central Statistical Office that is soon to be implemented. We wonder for example whether the mobile phone industry that barely existed ten years ago is even recorded in the statistics, or for that matter platinum! An economist who relies on Government statistics will find analysis tough. The Mid-term review reduced Government’s economic growth forecast from 7% to 5.4%. The IMF revised it’s down to 2.2% as they are concerned about Zimbabwe’s exports falling far short of imports. Surely not! We remain totally unconvinced and further don’t believe that the underlying number used for the economy, being $5 billion, is correct. As we saw in last year’s December budget, the Government revised up the size of the economy from $3.5 billion to $5.1 billion but with barely a corresponding uplift in the growth rate! We would not be at all surprised to see a similar ‘re-rating’ occur in the future. Last year we suggested that the economy is more likely an $8billion to $10 billion one. We stand by this and suggest that it might in fact be much bigger once the informal economy is included. That makes the current stock market capitalization of $3.5 billion look very cheap especially given the broad sector coverage of the economy that the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange provides investors. The Zim economy is pumping !

John R Legat | Chief Executive

Imara Asset Management Zimbabwe (Pvt) Limited

Block 2, Tendeseka Office Park, Eastlea

Tel : +263 4 790090, 790280, 790304

Fax: +263 4 791875

Website : www.imaraholdings.com

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10 tips on social media and investor relations: out of Africa
I do not believe that African markets are ready yet for social media in investor relations. Unless its for the likes of Safaricom or other regional heavyweigths. Ones with the resources to manage this properly in the African context. I believe that there’s risk in dealing with an ignorant investment community, one that has ready access to the Internet.
The absence of investment in shareholder education by Governments in Kenya, Nigeria and most of the other markets in which there has been significant growth in retail investors is the cause of my worry.
We haven’t yet got past the basics. There’s a lot wrong with listed companies’ attitudes and practices for any savvy retail shareholder to get their teeth into should they wish to shout.
I may change my mind as our services evolve. I just cannot see listed company executives grasping this, not until the current crop of grey haired techno-phobes give way to their upwardly mobile successors.
That said I have to say that the incessant focus on social media and investor relations in international markets is very interesting. Especially when all the technical jargon is summarised down to easily understandable content and tips. There’s good stuff online so I thought I would share some with you in the presentation below.
Got an African slant on the content presented below – let me know…

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Angolan Stock Exchange equity research starts

Imara, the Pan-African financial services group, has recently announced the widening of its Africa-wide investment research programme through the launch of regular in-depth reports on Angola.

Imara has given an international investment industry lead by establishing a Luanda-based subsidiary, Imara Securities Angola, to ensure strong market positioning ahead of accelerating economic reform and plans for an Angolan stock exchange.

The planned exchange – the Bolsa de Valores e Derivativos de Angola or BVDA – is expected to open before year-end.

In the interim, chief executive of Imara Securities Angola, Anthony Lopes Pinto, is conducting investment research and is distributing detailed reports to Imara clients and potential investors in the USA, UK and Western Europe.

The first report, circulated in mid-April, considers the potential for an Angolan bourse and likely corporate candidates for an initial public offering. The report also looks at Angola’s oil revenues, currency developments, possible impacts of a recent IMF aid package and efforts to diversify the non-oil economy.

In-depth company-specific information is promised in upcoming reports.

Imara Group CEO Mark Tunmer noted: “Angola is a market of huge potential that excites growing investor interest in major centres such as London and New York.

“We therefore thought it advisable to widen our already extensive research coverage of African markets by opening a window on policy and corporate developments inside Angola.

“Our new Angolan subsidiary is close to official opinion and the corporate sector. Authoritative, first-hand information will assist international investors looking to widen their exposure to growth-focused sub-Saharan economies. Our reports address a major need and contribute to our competitive advantage in this exciting market.”

Imara already reports on a wide range of African economies and corporate sectors, notably in support of investment funds devoted to general African markets, the African resources sector and Nigerian, Zimbabwean and East African equities.

  • Botswana-registered Imara has offices and partners in Blantyre, Dubai, Edinburgh, Gaborone, Harare, Johannesburg, Lagos, London, Luanda, Lusaka, Mauritius, Nairobi and Windhoek. Activities include corporate advisory services, stockbroking and asset management.

ISSUED ON BEHALF OF:  IMARA

BY:     CLEAR DISTINCTION COMMUNICATIONS

IMARA CONTACT:   Mark Tunmer

Tel:  +27 11 550-6100

Mobile: +27 83 788 9037

Email: markt@imara.co.za

Anthony Lopes Pinto

Tel:  +244 222 372 029/36

Mobile:  + 2449 2164 7045 or +4478 5066 9576

Email: anthonyl@imara-angola.com

CONSULTANCY CONTACT:  Carol Dundas

Tel: +27 11 444-0650

Mobile: +27 83 447 6648

Email: carol@cleardistinction.co.za

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Kenyan shareholder communications needs urgent attention

We have sent this IR research note to a broad array of stakeholders in Kenya’s capital markets:-

Kenya IR report
The document may be read online here. The regulatory framework in Kenya’s capital markets is rapidly evolving. The core issue: by placing the obligation of investors to locate shareholder communications the regulator’s core mandate, that of investor protection, is weakened.

Let me clarify here that the core issue is the replacement of hardcopy shareholder communications with something that is better not equal or worse. At the moment the regulators in Kenya have permitted generic shareholder communications publication in the press. This may be OK for the majority of shareholder communications but what about those corporate actions where the shareholder vote relies so much on the shareholder proxy material? In those situations where a direct link with the voters is vital because the majority shareholder is conflicted out? What about those shareholders with no access to the press or the internet?

A number of structural distortions have emerged from Kenyan listed companies’ attitudes in this unclear regulatory environment. One is fixation in the avoidance of incurring costs in implementing effective shareholder communications. This is a facade and an indication of the absence of awareness at Board level (and at a regulatory level) of how technology can be used to make the shareholder communications function a profitable one.

Another distortion is the attitude that retail shareholder interaction should be avoided. The recent developments in online share registry access is an extremely welcome development but company attitudes are as follows:-

  • Access thereto is a shareholder choice – so the shareholder must pay for it. It should be mandatory and free.
  • Some investors dont have access to the Internet so its not worth the investment
  • A single channel of communication is sufficient – e.g. publication in the press
  • The option for investors to opt in to receive hardcopy communications will not be provided

The Government of Kenya created Kenya’s large shareholder base as it was a political imperative. The Government of Kenya still has  a significant residual interest in the shareholdings of large Kenyan companies – Safaricom being one. The Government of Kenya should take some responsibility to ensure that the shareholders they have created have easy access to communications governance channels.

Fixation on cost reduction and reticence to consider solutions to actively engage shareholders, will, in the long run increase inherent market risk. Kenya is in a unique position to resolve this issue using precedent and innovation. The evidence is thus:-

  • payment platforms e.g MPESA are already being used to pay dividends – for Safaricom, Kenya’s largest listed company and owner of MPESA, every shareholder is an MPESA customer
  • a growing internet penetration rate
  • a high mobile penetration rate – Safaricom has 13 millions subscribers – a free app to allow opt in to receive corporate announcements or “notice and access” announcements would be SO EASY to do. At the moment they SMS blast anyone who registered at IPO not necessarily identified sharehoders.
  • a significant critical mass in shareholder numbers which should motivate some long term investment into serving them
  • a stock exchange that is itself about to become a publicly owned entity – how is the NSE going to set the standards of communication?

If anyone should be leading the way in online shareholder communications it should be Safaricom and the NSE. Their shareholder base was created through Government policy. Their shareholder base is a natural customer target (a strategic asset) and they have the technology and budget to create a World class integrated shareholder communications platform.  When the requirement to post hardcopy annual reports to shareholders was dropped Safaricom avoided say, over US$2m in annual printing and distribution costs. A small proportion of this could be applied to technologies (already existing ones) to engage shareholders directly. At the moment their share registrars do not have an online shareholder communications platform (but the CDS and Custody and Share Registrars do).

Everything is lined up in Kenya – all that is required is for someone to focus on the basics. The rest will come.

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IR research: Listed subsidiaries of listed holding companies in Africa

101 of the 427 listed companies we recently studied in 10 African countries are listed subsidiaries of listed holding companies. By market capitalisation they represent just over 36% or US$23bn of the total US$65bn of equities in our universe of companies. In many instances, in fact the majority, these subsidiaries are part of multi-national corporations with listings on the World’s top stock exchanges.

The mindset of the management of a listed subsidiary is different to that of other companies with different ownership profiles. Compliance, conformance, internal policies, group procedures, group strategy meetings dominate the governance arena. There are strict rules and regulations for many areas of a listed subsidiary’s operations and governance and a read of the governance sections of the related holding company annual report, or websites, will reveal World class commitment to good governance standards and disclosure. The latter includes electronic disclosure and proactive use of the Internet and annual report services

Listed subsidiaries of listed holding companies are liked by investors because typically there’s “big daddy” in the background and continuity of management. Listed subsidiaries of listed holding companies are mostly listed for political reasons; to mitigate the accusations of them being foreign investors “reaping the dividends” at the expense of the local economy. When indigenous residents also “reap” the same dividends it’s difficult for politician to attach the same level of rhetoric to such accusations. So a broad shareholder policy makes sense. If this is the case why are the online disclosure practices of listed subsidiaries of listed holding companies so far behind their holding company practices? Why aren’t the same practices at holding company level applied at subsidiary level? Simple indicators such as the following

  • are the latest annual reports online?
  • is there comprehensive information on the company online?
  • is there basic investment data online?
  • is information on the company up to date?
  • is there an IR contact?

I have thought about this for a long time and I have yet to work it out. I have a mental block on this. But I have a few thoughts:-

- is it because it’s Africa? Most Africans don’t have computers so why bother?

- is it a case of the value of a subsidiary’s equity being irrelevant at holding company level?

- is it a case of they just have not thought about it? mmmm….

- is it a case of “there is no regulation so we don’t have to do anything?

- is it a case of “our African operations are miniscule compared to our overall group so is it really worth it?”

- is it a case of “why highlight our operations if we don’t have to?”

- is it a case of “you just can’t get the skilled staff in Africa so we view the Internet as a risk rather than an asset”?

- do shareholders in Africa count less than shareholders at holding company level? Are the benefits of engagement immaterial because of the ignorance of retail shareholders?

I don’t know.

Our study covered Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Namibia, Tanzania and Mauritius and was carried out at the beginning of January 2o10.

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2009 Online Investor Relations Awards

Legislation and regulation in most African capital markets are not as strict as those in other markets and therefore corporate liability not as high. Progressive investor relations practices are therefore not as prevalent. However, according to AIC, the rapidly growing Internet access across the continent and the fact that many investors in African equities are a global community, the potential to build a relationship and communications with investors online is enormous. AIC’s Online IR Awards reward the pioneers in this field.

Online investor relations practices comprise strategic management responsibilities that integrate finance, communication, marketing and securities law compliance to enable the most effective secure two-way communication between a company, the financial community, and other constituencies, which ultimately contributes to a company’s securities achieving fair valuation.

Category : Best Online IR Programme 2009
Winner : African Sun Limited
Key_criteria :
  • Comprehensiveness of data published online
  • Profile of website feedback
  • Commercial returns from website feedback
  • Timeliness of posting data online
  • Diversity of media use
  • Enhancement of the IR function
Comment : African Sun received our top prize for its balanced online IR programme implemented over the past year. African Sun’s www.africansuninvestor.com provided equal focus on investors as www.africansunhotels.co.za provided on customers. Their transparent investment thesis, comprehensive website data, a new CEO blog and strong business growth all contributed toward positive ratings. African Sun received excellent ratings for the timing and nature of feedback provided to the queries submitted online. The key aspect, however, that enabled African Sun to clinch the award was the commercial value of the feedback they received through www.africansuninvestor.com. A pity that their share price has yet to respond.
Category : Best Performance 2009
Winner : Econet Wireless Zimbabwe
Key criteria :
  • Share price performance for the period under review
Comment : Econet Wireless has staged an unbelievable operational comeback less than a year since Zimbabwe’s hyper-hyper inflation forced the economy to re-start from ground zero through dollarisation. Throughout this period, Econet’s management could see the other side of the crisis and invested heavily in ensuring that when the US dollar replaced the local currency, they were in a strategic position to take advantage of it. This happened and continues to happen and the share price responded accordingly, recording the highest gain compared with other AIC clients for the period under review.
Category : Best Investor outreach 2009
Winner : Copperbelt Energy Corporation plc.
Key criteria :
  • Geographic diversity of website traffic
  • Number of unique website visitors
  • Number of website page views
  • Conversion ratio of visitors into registered InvestorPass™ visitors
Comment : CEC’s website analytics speaks for themselves: Amongst AIC’s clients, the company enjoyed the highest number of page views, the highest number of unique visitors, and highest number of visits from over 100 countries. Now that CEC has settled into its online IR programme following its launch in February 2009, tangible commercial benefits are starting to accrue through feedback to their website. CEC is a unique infrastructural public investment opportunity, which contributes to it being the radar screens of investors around the world.
Category : Best CEO blog 2009
Winner : Geoff Goss of Celsys Limited
Key criteria :
  • Frequency and consistency of blog posts
  • Blog content
  • Insight and motivation in content
Comment : Geoff Goss has habitually provided an excellent blog to complement Celsys’ investor relations website on www.celsys.co.zw. His jovial views into the pain suffered by Zimbabwe managements over the past few years have been extraordinarily insightful. Yes, the CEO blog doesn’t exactly have millions of visitors every day, but the message we get from Geoff – and it’s a message that we give to all our clients is that every effort should be taken to inform shareholders through many different media. It only takes one investor to change the fortunes of a company and so the effort is worth it.
Category : Best IPO Online Investor Relations 2009
Winner : Telekom Networks Malawi Limited
Key criteria :
  • Investor responsiveness before, during and after the IPO
  • Website interactivity before, during and after the IPO
  • Online prospectus
Comment : We only had one participant in this category, but there are some significantly unique aspects of this transaction that you will not have seen in any other African IPO. Firstly, regulatory approval was obtained to distribute the prospectus online with an application form. Secondly, the majority of TNM’s investment community was identified in InvestorPass at IPO stage. This secure two way communications platform has been key in merging corporate strategy (i.e. brand enhancement) with investor communications. TNM’s outreach measured by the number of countries visiting www.tnminvestor.com was AIC’s highest at 112.

AIC’s inaugural annual awards recognises the performance of AIC’s online investor relations clients during the previous calendar year.

Based on best investor relations practices, modified for African markets, African Is Cool (“AIC) uses corporate investor relations websites to create and grow an online investment community with which companies communicate, and from which they can receive feedback. The bigger the online community, the lower the costs of communication, the greater a company’s influence and the more efficient their communication.

Website feedback brings business deals, lowers the cost of doing business and gives listed companies the ability to modify corporate strategy. Because AIC’s services are unique they do not conflict with companies’ current financial reporting, IT, PR or marketing initiatives. In contrast, AIC services complement them.

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Brief profile of US investors: and Africa?

I read a study by the SEC on US investors and it go me thinking how none of the African markets have anything similar. The results of the profiling are interesting:-

  • 38% of investors in the US get company information from corporate websites, 24% from portals
  • 51% of US investors found the language used in annual reports “somewhat difficult” to understand and 21% “very difficult” – thats a total of 72% of the readers of annual reports finding difficulty in reading annual reports
  • 55% of investors found “too much” information in annual reports
  • 60% of investors revert to the Internet to find information missing in annual reports
  • US investors do not read annual reports because “they are too complicated – 38% of respondents” or ”they are too long – 21% of respondents”
  • 55% of US investors access information on their investments from the Internet
  • 20% of US households invest in shares and 26% in mutual funds

My suggestion is that once the African Stock Exchanges Association sorts out its directionless state it should co-ordinate market- wide studies into African markets. They need not be complicated. I bet you studies on cell phone ownership and internet penetration and what the needs are of African investors will reveal some real opportunities for Africa’s markets and companies to improve their capital markets.

One last statistic here is the scary one: investment literacy was measured and 70% of Americans with investments in shares acknowledged they owned a part of the company BUT 22% thought they had lent money to the company by investing in its shares. There has to be a high percentage chance that Africans are more investment savvy than Americans if studies were indeed carried out.

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Nigeria’s financial markets remain shallow, says IMF

Nigeria’s money and capital markets still lack the depth of lift the economy out of the doldrums, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

Also in the league of markets with shallow profile, according to IMF, are most of the other sub-Saharan African countries, despite reports of reforms in the respective economies. IMF, in a recently released report, noted that the domestic money and capital markets in Nigeria and most sub-Saharan African countries remain underdeveloped and shallow-offering mostly short term instruments.

Accordingly, stock market capitalisation remains low, while private securities markets are largely underdeveloped. The IMF stated that the shallowness and lack of versatility of hedging instruments in African financial markets likely accentuated short-term exchange rate movements.

Therefore, foreign exchange markets offers a limited array of forward hedging instruments, reflecting in part the concentration of foreign exchange receipts in the hands of the public sector, through aid or commodity exports.

Nabil Ben Ltaifa, Stella Kaendera and Shiv Dixit of the African Department, IMF, in their submission “Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in sub-Saharan Africa’ observed that the currencies of many sub-Saharan African countries, like those of many emerging and developing economies, offered large depreciations with the onset of the global financial crisis.

Nigeria’s currency, as one of the countries under study, was said to depreciate by at least 20 per cent between June and March 2009. After April 2009, while some currencies reversed their depreciating trend with respect to the United States dollar, the Nigerian naira continued almost unchanged.

Although, while in most countries, above-trend inflation mitigated the real effect of nominal depreciation, Nigeria registered a significant (over five per cent) real depreciation in its currency over the whole period. The trio observed that exchange rate volatility increased significantly compared to the pre-crisis period.

Volatility was generally higher with respect to the United States dollar but broadly less vis-a-vis the euro. The naira experienced significant increases in the volatility with respect to the three major currencies. In contrast, the Rwandan and Tanzanian currencies displayed similar or lesser volatility before the crisis with respect to the U.S. dollar.

Talking about the factors that affected the value of exchange rates, the experts noted that the first factors were external, reflecting the transmission of the global crisis through the trade and financial channels as well as the volatility of the US, the main international reserve currency.

“The impact was commensurate with the extent and nature of each country’s exposure to trade and global financial markets. At the same time, domestic policies played a role in shaping the nature and magnitude of the impact,” they said.

Concerning the external environment, the IMF officials observed that trade had, as expected, an adverse impact on the region’s currencies, but that the magnitude of this impact seems to have varied significantly across countries.

According to them, terms-of-trade movements were likely the main factor underlying movements in the exchange rates of Nigeria and Zambia, the two large commodity exporters in the sample. Conversely, the rebound in copper and oil prices in the latter part of the period supported the recovery of the Zambian Kwacha and a stabilisation of the naira.

The IMF officials also attributed policy choices of countries to the depreciation of their currencies. Nigeria operated a managed floating system, which tended to depreciate more, the economy consequently, registered large depreciation, reflecting the limit of currency management in the face of large changes in the external environment.

It was also observed that the domestic policy mix adopted in response to the external crisis also played a role in explaining exchange rate dynamics. According to them, most countries in the sample intervened in their foreign exchange markets in an effort to stem the shock to their currencies.

However, they said, managed floating regime like Nigeria intervened in a more regular and extensive manner to halt the depreciation. “As a result, nominal exchange rates in these countries have tended to be more stable. But intervention by the Nigeria’s Central Bank was however, unsuccessful in preventing a large step depreciation of the currency by the end of 2008, in the large turnaround in trade and capital flows.

Source: Proshare

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