At that point, the great wise man opens the box, peers inside and exclaims, “It’s a diamond!” and hands the box to a man in the crowd. This begins a great fervor in the crowd and one person shouts, “I will pay you $100 for the box!” The man considers the offer and trades the box for $100. After a minute has passed, the wise man asks the man for the box, peeks inside and hands it back and as each minute passes, the wise man repeats his observation of the contents. You begin to get excited as well and say to yourself, “A diamond is worth much more than $100!” You ask the Wiseman, “What does the diamond look like? How big is it?” and the wise man replies, “I have made my statement and will speak no further until the 15 minutes are up.”

You count all of the money that you have in your pockets and shout to the man holding the box, “I will pay you $180 for the box!” The man thinks hard about your offer and eventually agrees. As you hold the hold in excited anticipation, you watch closely as the great wise man continues to check the contents every minute. Finally, the 15 minutes are over and wise man says, “You may now see the contents.” You open the box and are shocked to see that the box is filled with buffalo poop. The crowd lets out a disappointed gasp.

The wise man takes back the box and states again, “Behold this magic box! Every 15 minutes, the box will reveal a prize for whomever is holding the box; sometimes a treasure, sometimes not. But until the 15 minutes have passed, only I can see the contents of the box.” The wise man opens the box, peers inside and exclaims, “It’s a diamond!” and hands the box back to you. The crowd begins dispersing, convinced the wise man is actually a charlatan. You are now sad and broke so you ask the few remaining if anyone would like to buy the box. After a period of silence, one man says, “I will give you 25 cents for the box.” Having no other choice, you take the quarter and walk away.

As the years pass, when you are in the marketplace, you occasionally see the Wiseman with his box. Once you heard that someone actually did get a diamond, but no one has ever paid $180 for the box again. Your only consolation is to warn everyone you meet to not get tricked into playing the wise man’s game.

Thanks to Troy Ussery of B2i Technologies for this anecdote.

Related Posts

No related posts.

Its not illegal to put forecast information on corporate websites in Africa, and if this is the case the company should take to care to ensure this information is posted responsibly with apppropriate “safe harbour” information.The information should also be posted without prominence. Directors tend to shy away from this disclosure as there is a constant responsibility to ensure that the information is not misleading.

An alternative solution is paid broker research. The concept is new in Africa and there are best guidelines with which to comply (disclosure of how much has been paid for the report etc.) . We like the idea as a means to avoid the possible pitfalls of posting forecasts directly on the IR website.

Related Posts

1. Issuer paid research – we like the idea
2. Strong GDP growth revisions in some African countries
3. Hard copy annual reports required in Zimbabwe: good or bad?